LETTER FROM NEW DELHI
“Make children!” demanded two of India’s regional heads of government. A bit contradictory in the world’s most populous country, with its 1.4 billion residents and a median age of 28.7, compared with 38.4 for China, which was on the top step of the podium of most populous states until 2023.
Despite the youthfulness of its citizens – under-25s make up 40% of the population, with over-65s just 7% of the population – the Asian giant is beginning to take the issue of aging seriously, at least in one part of the subcontinent. India’s overall fertility rate, which corresponds to the average number of children a woman could have in her lifetime, fell to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level set at 2.1. It is even lower in the country’s south, where all states are facing a falling birth rate.
Tamil Nadu, whose capital is Madras, breaks all records with the lowest fertility rate in India (1.4). It is followed by Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala (1.5) and Karnataka (1.6).
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Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin, at a wedding ceremony he attended, implored his fellow citizens to have children, as did his counterpart from Andhra Pradesh, Nara Chandrababu Naidu. The latter, to counter the trend towards smaller families, announced that he would introduce incentives or coercive measures. “We must act now,” he said, urging women to contribute to demographic balance. In August, he had already abolished legislation prohibiting parents with more than two children from running for government posts or local elections.
The northern states are much more fertile. Bihar has the highest fertility rate in the country (3), followed by Uttar Pradesh (2.7) and Madhya Pradesh (2.6). These geographical differences are essentially due to the level of development. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are among the poorest regions, with very low social indicators. Over 33% of Bihar’s population lives in multidimensional poverty.
Southern states, on the other hand, are the best-educated and healthiest. In these regions, couples often choose to have fewer children to better provide for their offspring and ensure a good education.
Political issues
Experts are highly skeptical about the impact of incentives. “Once the process of declining fertility has begun, it generally does not reverse,” said demographer Purushottam Kulkarni. “This situation is catastrophic because it is irreversible and has a lasting impact on the demography, economy and political representation of these states in parliament,” agreed Srinivas Goli, professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai.
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